Fishburn Hedges

24.02.2010

Peter Riddell, one of the UK’s most respected political commentators joined us at our seminar on 23 February to share his thoughts on how to prepare for a change of government.

He has written extensively about the process of government, including co-authoring the Institute for Government’s report Transitions: preparing for changes of government.

What's Next Peter Riddell from Fishburn Hedges on Vimeo.

 

What does the narrowing of the polls tell us?

The race has tightened, but only tightened.

Recent polls show a Conservative dip, but we should not forget the 2% margin for error that any poll has.  Likewise, there are also unusual and off-trend the polls, which, though more newsworthy should be discounted.

Underlying trends are what matter, so the lead has tightened, but not evaporated.

So what happens when a government changes?

The new UK administration is usually in place within hours of a result.  In other democracies transfers may take from days to months, and not hours.

Hence, the people moving to the top jobs in Government are exhausted from the campaign, just when they have to make crucial decisions. The real question isn’t the handover itself, but how well the incoming administration is prepared.

Transitions are an under-studied subject, with too few lessons learnt from previous transfers, despite the fact Westminster has a very brutal system.

Local government allow 10 days between results and the new administration and Scotland and Wales have month-long statutory periods to hand over.

How well prepared are new ministers?

At the very heart of Government, there is a lack of institutional memory, when a long-term incumbent moves out.

Not a single member of Tony Blair’s 1997 Cabinet had senior ministerial experience, only two thirds of his Cabinet had been decided upon before the election victory, and only two thirds got jobs in policy areas they had experience.

Cameron is in only a slightly better position with only a handful of his team having served in Government. The same goes for Permanent Secretaries, with just a handful involved in the 1997 transfer.

What breadth of experience will the new government have?

The parliamentary arithmetic also means that if Cameron forms a majority government, then about half his MPs will be new.

There will be a huge temptation to appoint bright young MPs to ministerial positions – which could exacerbate inexperience in government, as well as anger senior MPs.

With a limited pool of tested talent, the Conservatives are in a tricky position for an incoming administration.

It’s also hard to predict how individuals will prosper in Government, and leap from running a Shadow team to running a Department.  Some will flounder, others will blossom.

Policy or personality?

Whitehall is probably coordinating a potential change of government better than ever – but they have limited personal contact with opposition politicians.

Compared with the 1970s, civil servants are unfamiliar with opposition politicians. New Ministers will need to build relationships quickly with their civil servants, if the transition is to be smooth.

Policy isn’t the hardest bit, because the civil service will analyse and brief on any manifesto commitment, and will be eager to prove their effectiveness.

The difficulty for civil servants is to adjust to Ministers who might consider previous departmental activity to be political. 

For the ministers, it’s about understanding the culture of government and decision-making, and switching mindset from opposition to government.

Although shadow Cabinet Office minister Francis Maude’s Implementation Unit has done much to prepare, acclimatising would still be difficult.

Spending cuts in the “emergency” budget?

For all the talk of an “emergency” budget, every incoming administration holds a budget within the first weeks in office, and there is a limit to what they can do in that first year.

With spending commitments for the year already underway, there’s really only scope to make limited changes. 

In 1979, Geoffrey Howe only managed cuts equivalent to two-to-three per cent of public spending.  Far more significant was the spending review that he set underway.

What about a hung Parliament?

All of this is overshadowed by the possibility of a hung Parliament: but despite popular consternation, the rules governing that situation are actually quite clear.

The leader of the largest party isn’t automatically summoned to Buckingham Palace, and Gordon Brown would have the right to try and form a Government, although commanding a majority in the Commons is the most important criteria for a PM.

Minority administrations in general are not unusual, and don’t always fall. Alex Salmond in Scotland is one example and, though it’s difficult in a time of fiscal uncertainty, the key test is if the budget gets through.

Please note this is a summary of the key points of the discussion and should not be considered to represent Mr Riddell’s exact views.